NQ Week Ahead (Nov 2–6, 2026): Midterms, Apple, AMD, Payrolls and the 10% Line

Last Sunday's Week Ahead put 28,455 on the chart as the line where this pullback becomes a correction: 10% under the October 6 record of 31,616.50. On Friday NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, December contract) traded through it to 28,232.75, 10.7% below the record, and settled at 28,534, 79 points back above the line. From Wednesday's high to Friday's low the drop was 1,945 points.

The new week also starts on a different clock. The US left daylight saving time on November 1, so New York is six hours behind Central Europe again: 8:30 AM ET data lands at 14:30 CET, the cash open is at 15:30 CET, and Globex reopens on Sunday at 6:00 PM ET, midnight in Europe.

Five sessions, one direction after Wednesday

The week closed down 583.75 points, and the net number hides the shape. Wednesday's high at 30,178 was 65 points above the previous week's high and 47 short of the October 16 high at 30,225. Everything after that went one way.

The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for another quarter-point hike. Thursday's data gave the hawks nothing to take back: third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate against forecasts of 3.1–3.2%, and September PCE inflation (personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred gauge) rose to 3.6% year over year, with core at 3.1%. Both inflation prints matched expectations. Growth that strong with inflation drifting higher kept a December hike priced at roughly 85% after Thursday's data and leaves long-duration tech without the rate relief that usually cushions a selloff. The 10-year Treasury yield eased over the week, from 5.00% to 4.94%, so the push lower came from earnings and not from the bond market.

Alphabet reported $127.6 billion in revenue, short of estimates near $128 billion, with $51.4 billion of capital spending in the quarter and negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion; the stock fell about 8% after hours. Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0–16.0 billion, below the $16.5 billion it had just reported, and said the PC slowdown, driven by memory prices, should last at least through the first half of 2027. Intel closed Friday down 28.6%, its worst day since 1974. Amazon's report on Thursday evening, alongside Intel's, added to the worries about capital spending. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 7.2% on Friday, and Qualcomm, which reports this Wednesday, fell 11%.

The level I called the hinge last week was 29,750–29,770: the 2026 point of control (POC, the price where the most NQ contracts have traded this year) and the prior week's POC next to it. NQ closed above it on Tuesday and Wednesday. After Alphabet's report the Thursday session opened at 29,793.50, right on top of it, and settled about 190 points below it. That was the second failure there in two weeks, the case I'd said would keep sellers in charge. On Friday the 28,987–29,033 floor gave way, then the 10% line. Both the week's high and its low still stayed inside last week's VXN-implied range of 27,960 to 30,280.

Levels I've marked

Levels are rounded to the nearest 5 points, and distances are measured from Friday's 28,534 settlement. The supply zones come from the 4-hour chart: areas where sellers took over and price left quickly. This week's VXN-implied range (the one-standard-deviation move priced by Nasdaq-100 options) is about 1,145 points either way, 27,390 to 29,680.

Last week's value area (the range where 70% of the week's volume traded) ran from 29,125 to 30,000, and its low sits almost exactly where the week started, at 29,117.75. Three 4-hour supply zones stand between Friday's settlement and the 2026 POC, and the lowest one, 29,000–29,065, sits right on the floor that held on Monday and broke on Friday.

How I'm reading the week

Lower, unless something changes. I'll start with Sunday's reopen at 6:00 PM ET (00:00 CET) and whether NQ gaps away from Friday's 28,534 settlement. I'm not chasing Friday's drop. I'd rather wait for a bounce into the bigger 4-hour levels and see whether sellers defend them, and I don't expect a bounce to get much past 29,000, just under last week's value area low at 29,125. After that I expect the decline to continue.

Earnings decide how far. Chips are already breaking down after Intel, and I expect several of this week's reports to disappoint. If they do, Friday's low at 28,235 is unlikely to hold, and a new low opens the way to the July 29 low at 27,480, which sits just above the bottom of this week's VXN range. The backdrop leans the same way: a December hike still largely priced in, Brent above $110 and an election in the middle of the week. AMD's report and the first election results both land on Tuesday evening, after the 22:00 CET cash close, so Wednesday can open with a gap, and I'll plan that day only after the open. Strong guidance from the chip names is the kind of surprise that would change this read.

The calendar in ET and CET

Apple, AMD and Qualcomm all report after the cash close, on three evenings in a row, and the election results arrive overnight. Much of this week's repricing will happen on Globex, and for anyone trading from Europe the morning session is the first to trade each event. The economic calendar has the full list; these are the ones I've marked for NQ.

September payrolls rose only 29,000. A print near the 55,000 consensus with wages up 0.3% on the month fits the path the Fed is already on. Hot wages would push the December hike closer to certain, while a much weaker number would move the market's worry from inflation to growth. I'm flat before the major releases, which on Friday means flat before 14:30 CET.

Election night on Globex

Polls close between 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday (00:00 CET Wednesday) and 1:00 AM ET (07:00 CET), with the main waves at 7, 8 and 9 PM ET, which is 01:00 to 03:00 in Central Europe. Globex trades through all of it on overnight liquidity. At the time of writing, prediction markets price a Democratic House at about 94% and a Democratic Senate at about 71%, so a House result in line with that is mostly in the price already, and a surprise in either chamber is the larger risk. Calls can also take days: in 2022 the Associated Press called the Senate four days after the vote and the House eight days after. Governor and state utility commission races get more attention than usual this year, because state rules on power for data centers feed straight into the AI spending debate. If you haven't watched a US election from a futures chart before, an upcoming post on election night and NQ futures will cover the overnight mechanics.

Oil and a roll on the chart

Brent's December contract expired on Friday at $117.64 a barrel, its highest settlement since late April, after reports that a senior US commander had briefed President Trump on military options against Iran. January Brent, now the front month, settled at $113.43, so a continuous Brent chart will show a $4.21 drop on Monday that is only the switch between contracts. WTI settled at $104.12. Over October, Brent gained about 14% and WTI about 15%. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, I read the prices-paid parts of Monday's and Wednesday's ISM surveys with the oil chart open, because energy is the input that keeps the December hike in play.