NQ Week Ahead (Oct 26–30, 2026): Fed, Big Tech Earnings, PCE and the Lost 2026 POC
NQ lost 865 points on Thursday and closed the week at 29,117.75. The levels around the 2026 POC and Friday's low, plus a 19-hour window with the Fed, Microsoft, Alphabet, GDP, PCE and the ECB, every time in ET and CET.
Nineteen hours, starting at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday: the Fed decision, Kevin Warsh's press conference, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the close, then third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation at 8:30 AM ET on Thursday and the European Central Bank 45 minutes later. Amazon and Intel report Thursday evening. That window holds most of the week's scheduled information, and NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, December contract) goes into it at 29,117.75, about 630 points under the level that decided last week.
The calendar in ET and CET
Europe moved its clocks back this morning and the US follows on November 1. For this one week the gap is five hours, so 8:30 AM ET is 13:30 CET and the cash open is 14:30 CET, an hour earlier than usual for anyone trading from Europe. The economic calendar has the full list; these are the releases I've marked for NQ.
| Day | ET | CET | Event | Why it matters for NQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 27 | 8:30 AM | 13:30 | Durable goods orders (Sep) | First hard data of the week; a rebound expected after a 0.1% dip in August |
| Tue Oct 27 | 10:00 AM | 15:00 | Consumer confidence (Oct) | Read against Friday's 4.7% one-year inflation expectations from the University of Michigan |
| Wed Oct 28 | 2:00 PM | 19:00 | FOMC decision | A hold at 3.75–4.00% is priced near 90% |
| Wed Oct 28 | 2:30 PM | 19:30 | Warsh press conference | No new projections, so his words on December carry the meeting |
| Wed Oct 28 | after 4:00 PM | after 21:00 | Microsoft, Alphabet earnings | Cloud and AI revenue against the spending |
| Thu Oct 29 | 8:30 AM | 13:30 | Q3 GDP (advance), September PCE, jobless claims | Growth and inflation in one print, consensus GDP near 3% |
| Thu Oct 29 | 9:15 AM | 14:15 | ECB decision (press conference 9:45 / 14:45) | Hold expected; European yields feed into Treasuries |
| Thu Oct 29 | after 4:00 PM | after 21:00 | Amazon, Intel earnings | AWS growth; the second half of the AI test |
| Fri Oct 30 | ~11:00 PM Thu | ~04:00 | Bank of Japan | Hold at 1.25% expected; no fixed release time |
| Fri Oct 30 | 8:30 AM | 13:30 | Employment cost index (Q3) | Wage pressure, 0.8% expected after 0.9% |
| Fri Oct 30 | 9:45 AM | 14:45 | Chicago PMI (Oct) | Last data of the month, then month-end flows into the close |
Treasury supply runs through the week as well: 2-year notes on Monday, 5-year on Tuesday and 7-year on Thursday, each at 1:00 PM ET (18:00 CET). The 10-year yield closed Friday at 5.00%, so a weak auction (one that clears at a higher yield than the market expected) can reach long-duration tech within minutes.
The Fed hiked 25 basis points in September, and this is the first meeting since. Futures price roughly a 90% chance of a hold at the time of writing and lean toward another hike in December. Without a new dot plot, the weight falls on Warsh's answers about December and on the vote split; three regional presidents dissented in favor of a hike in July.
Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are three of the largest weights in the Nasdaq-100, and all three report within about 24 hours. After last week, each faces the same question: is cloud and AI revenue growing fast enough to carry the spending? Meta fell on its AI spending plans, Lam Research fell 12% on its outlook, and on Thursday all 30 members of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed lower. Apple reports on Monday, November 2, so the earnings risk carries into next week.
How last week ended
NQ opened Sunday evening at 29,227, under the previous week's low of 29,268.75, and Monday's low printed one point below that open. From 29,226 it rallied 757 points into Monday's high, reached 30,113 on Wednesday and closed Wednesday at 30,007. That close sat above the 2026 volume point of control at 29,750 (POC, the price where the most contracts have traded this year) and above 29,770, which became the week's own POC.
Thursday took it all back: 865 points close to close, a 960-point range and a close at 29,142. Friday printed the week's low at 28,987 and closed at 29,117.75, down 273.75 points on the week.
Last Sunday's post named 29,053 as the base of the September rally. Friday traded 66 points under it and closed 65 points back above it, so the level broke during the day but held on the close. From the October 6 record at 31,616.50, NQ has now been down as much as 2,629.50 points, or 8.3%.
Levels I've marked
| Level | What it is | What I'm watching |
|---|---|---|
| 30,280 | Upper edge of the VXN-implied weekly move | Outer band, not a target |
| 30,225 | October 16 high, where the drop two weeks ago began | Above it, NQ is back inside the October 12–16 balance |
| 30,115 | Last week's high and value area high | Where a second breakout attempt would be confirmed or fail |
| 30,000 | Round number, Wednesday's 30,007 close | Where last week's breakout failed |
| 29,750–29,770 | 2026 POC and last week's POC | The hinge for the week |
| 29,390–29,440 | Settlement two Fridays ago (29,391.50), Tuesday's low (29,391.75), a low-volume node | First resistance above Friday's balance |
| 29,310 | Last week's value area low | A close back above it puts NQ back in last week's value |
| 28,985–29,035 | Friday's low and Thursday's low | The floor that held on Friday |
| 28,455 | 10% under the October 6 record | Where the pullback becomes a correction |
| 27,960 | Lower edge of the VXN-implied weekly move | Outer band |
The 29,750–29,770 pair carries the most weight. NQ got above it on Wednesday and lost it on Thursday, so the market has already rejected it once. If price gets back above 29,770 after the Fed and Microsoft, closes above it on the 30-minute chart and then holds a pullback into it, I'd read last week's drop as a pullback inside a range that runs up to 30,225. A second rejection there keeps sellers in charge.
Below, Friday's balance sits on top of the 28,985–29,035 floor, with plenty of stops parked under it. If that floor breaks and price stays under it, 28,455 is the next level I've marked. A fast break that gets bought back is the other case: last Sunday's open below the prior week's low turned into a 757-point bounce, and late sellers can get trapped the same way.
Oil, yields and the options picture
Brent settled Friday at $116.72, its highest close since April, and WTI at $103.27. Over the weekend the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil sites at Yanbu and Rabigh and on the East-West pipeline, the route that carries Saudi crude around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia says it shot down missiles and drones aimed at Yanbu, Taif and Riyadh but has not commented directly on the Houthi claims, and no damage or lost output has been confirmed at the time of writing. Oil reopens with NQ at 6:00 PM ET (23:00 CET) on Sunday, so the first hour may trade those headlines before anything on the calendar. Israel votes on Tuesday, one more headline the market will read through oil.
Higher oil lifts inflation expectations and yields with them; the 10-year closed Friday at 5.00%, after 5.15% on Monday. Whether it settles above or below 5% is the line I'm watching for pressure on tech valuations going into the Fed.
The VXN (the Nasdaq-100 volatility index) closed Friday at 28.30, which prices a one-standard-deviation weekly move of about 1,160 points: 27,960 to 30,280 from Friday's close. That band already includes the event premium for the FOMC and four big earnings reports. A week ago the same math gave about 1,120 points either way, and both last week's high and low stayed inside it. New to options-implied ranges? This post on the NQ expected move walks through the calculation.
Educational content, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Examples are for illustration only. Read the full Risk Disclosure.
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