NQ Week Ahead (Oct 12–16, 2026): September CPI, Chip Earnings and the Range Under the Record

The release that matters most for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) this week is Wednesday's consumer price index (CPI), the only CPI report the Fed will see between its September hike and the October 27–28 decision. It comes out at 8:30 AM ET (14:30 CEST), and the forecasts describe two different months inside one release: a headline pushed up by gasoline and a core, which leaves out food and energy, that is expected to cool on the month.

Gasoline explains most of the gap. Its index was up 27.4% on the year in August, and AAA's national average stood at $4.37 a gallon on October 7, against $3.12 a year earlier. Forecasters can see that part coming at the pump; a surprise, if there is one, sits in the core month.

Going into the weekend, fed funds futures (contracts that price the Fed's expected rate) and prediction markets put an October hike at 16% to 20% and a hike by the December 8–9 meeting at roughly 75% to 80%. The minutes released on October 7 showed most officials judging that another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, and last week's surveys gave them reason to watch expectations: the New York Fed's one-year measure rose to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023, and the University of Michigan's 5-to-10-year reading to 3.5%. A 0.2% core keeps December as the base case. A 0.4% is the kind of print that brings October back into play, and that repricing hits the two-year yield first and the 10-year after it, which is how rate expectations reach NQ.

Last week netted 47 points

Tuesday's record, 31,616.50 on the December contract (NQ 12-26), printed at 11:15 AM ET (17:15 CEST) in the quietest US session of the week, 159 points from high to low. Thursday brought the widest. The Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualized revenue was nearing $50 billion at the end of September, well short of the roughly $70 billion that had been circulating, and from about 12:40 PM ET (18:40 CEST) NQ fell about 450 points in 45 minutes to 30,792. It settled (CME's official daily price) at 30,969.50, down 432.75. Later reports said the higher figure had counted partners' gross revenue, and Friday's US session covered only 189 points before a settlement at 31,108.75. Net for the week: up 47 points on an 824.5-point range.

Yields eased. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.36% on Wednesday and closed Friday at 5.24%. Thursday's $22 billion of 30-year bonds sold at 5.618%, the highest 30-year auction yield in more than 25 years, yet 0.1 basis point (0.001 percentage point) below the when-issued yield, the rate the bonds traded at just before bidding closed, so buyers took the supply without a discount. Oil went the other way. Brent rose about 4% on Thursday after reports that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options against Iran and after more attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, held most of it after Trump ruled out an attack before the November 3 midterms, and ended the week near $105.

Measured against last week's levels, Tuesday stopped 33.5 points under the 31,650 projection, Thursday's low held 22 points above the 30,750–30,770 floor, and all of Friday's US session traded below 31,280, the line that post set for dropping the record as the main story. Until one side gives, I'm treating Thursday's low to Tuesday's high as a range.

Levels on NQ 12-26

The point of control (POC) is the price where the most contracts traded, the value area is the band around it that held about 70% of the volume, and VWAP is the volume-weighted average price, all three for last week's full Globex session (CME's electronic market, Sunday evening to Friday). The volume profile post shows how to get them in TradingView for free. Distances are from Friday's settlement.

For scale, the VXN, Cboe's implied-volatility index for the Nasdaq-100, closed Friday at 20.55. Divided by √252, that's about 1.29% a day, or roughly 400 NQ points. Multiplied by √5 for five sessions, it comes to about 900 points either side of the settlement: 30,210 to 32,010. Every line in the table, the record included, sits inside that one-standard-deviation band. Last week's sessions averaged 417 points from high to low, with Thursday at 674, so implied and realized volatility roughly agree going into CPI. New to turning the VXN into points? Start with the average daily range post.

The calendar, ET and CEST

Monday is Columbus Day. Stocks and CME futures trade normal hours, the cash bond market is closed on the recommendation of SIFMA, the securities industry's trade group, and there's no US data. The IMF and World Bank hold their annual meetings in Bangkok all week, which is why the Fed chair speaks at 5:30 in the morning, European time. The full list, Fed speakers included, is on the calendar page; these are the entries I've marked.

Thursday's PPI deserves more attention than it usually gets. Several of its components, airfares, portfolio-management fees and medical services among them, feed straight into the Fed's preferred gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose 3.0% in the year to August. Forecasters rebuild their PCE estimates within minutes of the PPI, so Thursday can revise what Wednesday decided.

Chips before Europe opens

Thursday's drop showed how much of NQ rides on AI revenue numbers, and the week's two biggest data points on AI hardware arrive before my session starts. ASML, a Nasdaq-100 member, reports at 07:00 CEST on Wednesday; its October report is usually where it gives a first view of the following year, which can outweigh the quarter. TSMC isn't in the index, but it moves the chip stocks that are. Its monthly sales already add up to NT$1.49 trillion for the quarter, about $46.7 billion at the NT$32 rate it planned with and above the top of its guide, so Thursday's call is about the fourth-quarter outlook and spending. Both reactions play out on Globex in the European morning, hours before the 9:30 AM ET (15:30 CEST) cash open.

Inside my window

I trade roughly 9:00 to 15:30 CEST and stand aside for the big 8:30 AM ET prints, so from Europe the week looks like this:

• Monday: a full session, but without a cash 10-year yield to check until Tuesday.
• Tuesday: Waller at 09:45, bank results from about 13:00.
• Wednesday: opens on ASML, ends at 14:25 for CPI.
• Thursday: opens on TSMC, ends at 14:25 for the 8:30 cluster.
• Friday: starts after Warsh and runs into options expiration, when a large share of the dealer hedging described in the gamma post comes off.

Two prices would change how I read the range. A US session that holds above 31,403 puts the record back in play; one that breaks below 30,760 says Thursday's low wasn't the end of the selloff.