Economic Releases That Move NQ: CPI, NFP, FOMC, ISM and the Rest, Ranked by Tier
Three releases decide most of the big data days on NQ, a dozen more move it when the number surprises, and the rest fill calendars without moving the contract. The full tier list with ET and CEST times, the NQ-specific events macro calendars miss, and the Q4 2026 dates.
Which news moves NQ? Three releases decide most of the big data days, a dozen more can move it when the number is far from consensus, and the rest fill economic calendars without moving the E-mini Nasdaq-100 at all. The list below ranks them by what they usually do to the contract, gives the times in ET and CEST, and ends with the Q4 2026 dates at the time of writing. What one point of that move costs is in the NQ vs MNQ pillar; what to do around a release (flat, fade or follow) is in the news trading post. This one is about which events deserve that attention in the first place.
A tier here is defined by consequence, not by a calendar's colour coding. Tier 1 changes what the market expects the Fed to do, so the move goes through rates into every index at once and usually lasts the session. Tier 2 changes the picture of growth or inflation on the margin: a surprise moves NQ for minutes to an hour, an in-line print is often absorbed within the first bar. Tier 3 is background. It gets a spike when it surprises and nothing when it doesn't.
The tier list
| Tier | Release | When (ET / CEST) | Cadence | What it usually does to NQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CPI (Consumer Price Index) | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Monthly, around the second week | The inflation print. A core surprise reprices the Fed path; the first minute is often the largest of the day |
| 1 | Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, wages) | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Usually the first Friday of the month | Headline payrolls plus revisions; the initial move often reverses once wages and revisions are read |
| 1 | FOMC statement and press conference | 2:00 PM / 20:00 statement, 2:30 PM / 20:30 press conference | 8 meetings a year | The statement moves it, the press conference moves it again, often the other way; quarterly meetings add projections |
| 2 | PCE price index | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Monthly, end of month | The Fed's preferred inflation measure; smaller move than CPI because CPI already told the story |
| 2 | PPI (Producer Price Index) | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Monthly, near CPI | Matters when it disagrees with CPI on core goods |
| 2 | Retail sales | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Monthly, mid-month | Consumer demand; a miss gets a growth-scare reaction |
| 2 | GDP (advance estimate) | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Quarterly, then two revisions | The advance print moves it; revisions rarely do |
| 2 | ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI | 10:00 AM / 16:00 | First and third business day of the month | Lands 30 minutes into RTH; the prices-paid component matters most |
| 2 | Initial jobless claims | 8:30 AM / 14:30 | Every Thursday | Usually nothing; a jump above the recent range becomes a labour-market story |
| 2 | JOLTS job openings | 10:00 AM / 16:00 | Monthly, early in the month | A month old on release, Fed-cited, moves NQ on large surprises |
| 3 | ADP employment | 8:15 AM / 14:15 | Wednesday before payrolls | Traded as a payrolls preview; the correlation is weak |
| 3 | University of Michigan sentiment (with inflation expectations) | 10:00 AM / 16:00 | Preliminary mid-month Friday, final two weeks later | The inflation-expectations line is the part that moves rates |
| 3 | FOMC minutes | 2:00 PM / 20:00 | Three weeks after the meeting | Occasional spike; the meeting already happened |
| 3 | Fed speakers | Various | Daily in some weeks | Matters from the Chair and a few voters near a meeting; the calendar can't tell you which quote will land |
| 3 | Treasury auctions (10-year, 30-year) | 1:00 PM / 19:00 | Monthly | A weak auction lifts yields and NQ notices, usually for an hour |
| 3 | Housing starts, durable goods, trade balance, consumer confidence | 8:30 or 10:00 AM | Monthly | Calendar filler for NQ; an occasional spike |
Two notes on the times. Everything at 8:30 AM ET lands an hour before the cash open, so the reaction plays out in the pre-market with thinner books and wider spreads, and the RTH open at 9:30 AM ET / 15:30 CEST becomes a second event. And the CEST column is right only until October 25, 2026: Europe leaves summer time that Sunday and the US on November 1, so for one week every release above lands an hour earlier on a European clock (CPI at 13:30 CET), and from November 2 the usual offset returns with 8:30 AM ET at 14:30 CET. The sessions post covers the clock change in general; a dedicated post on that week is coming before it happens.
The NQ-specific tier 1 that macro calendars miss
NQ is a hundred stocks and a handful of them are most of the weight. Earnings from the largest index members, released after the close and traded overnight in Globex, can move NQ more than a tier-2 release does, and the one that matters most in a given quarter is usually the chipmaker at the top of the weighting, which reports on its own fiscal calendar (late in the month after each quarter-end, so late November for the current quarter at the time of writing). Options expiration, the third Friday of the month and especially the quarterly ones, is the other NQ-specific date: not a release, but a day when dealer hedging changes how price behaves around levels. Neither shows up in an economic calendar's "high impact" filter. Both belong on the calendar you keep for yourself.
What the tiers change on the desk
The practical use of a tier list is a decision made the night before, not a reaction at 8:30. Traders handle it in roughly three ways. Some go flat before every tier-1 and tier-2 release and let the first rotation pass; the cost is missing the occasional clean trend day that starts at 8:31. Some stay in with the stop where the setup put it and accept that a tier-1 print can gap through it by a few points; the cost is one bad slippage day a quarter. Some trade only the reaction, entering after the first move has shown its direction; the cost is fewer trades and a wider stop. Which fits depends on the setup, and the flat, fade or follow post puts a cost on each.
My own version is simpler than a framework. Tier-1 days I'm flat into the number and I treat the first ten minutes after it as a different market from the one I planned for. Tier 2 I trade normally with the release marked on the chart. Tier 3 I ignore unless the calendar shows one a few minutes before an entry. The WotT Event Monitor puts the next release on the NinjaTrader chart so none of this depends on remembering.
Q4 2026 dates at the time of writing
CPI: October 14, November 10 and December 10, all at 8:30 AM ET. Employment Situation: October 2, November 6 and December 4, all three on the BLS release schedule. FOMC: October 27–28 and December 8–9, the December meeting with projections. PCE: the last week of each month. ISM Manufacturing: October 1, November 2 and December 1, with ISM Services two business days after each. Check the calendar the week of; agencies do move dates, and a government shutdown in late 2025 meant one monthly CPI report was never published at all.